Earnings and EPS Forecast - Continuing Operations
( $ Millions, Except Per Share Amounts)
|
2012 Forecast |
2011 |
%B(W) |
| Earnings |
$205 - 210 |
$171 |
20-23% |
| Comparable Earnings(1) |
$206 - 211 |
$181 |
14-17% |
|
|
|
|
| Comparable EPS(1) |
$4.00 - 4.10 |
$ 3.49 |
15-17% |
| 1Q2012EPS |
$0.55 - 0.58 |
$ 0.51 |
8-14% |
| |
|
|
|
Note: Earnings per share amounts are calculated independently for each component and may not be additive due to rounding.
(1) Non-GAAP financial measures- please refer to financial statements and Earnings Release materials for description and reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.
Revenue Forecast
( $ Millions)
|
2012 Forecast |
2011 |
%B(W) |
| Total Revenue |
$6,300 |
$6,051 |
4% |
| Operating Revenue(1) |
$5,100 |
$4,815 |
6% |
|
|
|
|
(1) Non-GAAP financial measures- please refer to financial statements and Earnings Release materials for description and reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.
Segment Revenue Forecast
|
2012 Forecast Midpoint Change % vs. 2011
|
| Fleet Management Solutions |
|
| Total Revenue(1) |
6% |
| Contractual Revenue(2) |
5% |
| Commercial Rental Revenue |
17% |
| Operating Revenue |
8% |
| |
|
| Supply Chain Solutions:(3) |
|
| Total Revenue(4) |
1% |
| Operating Revenue |
2% |
|
|
(1) Includes fuel services revenue
(2) Includes full service lease and contract maintenance
(3) Represents combined reporting of SCS and DCC activity
(4) Includes subcontracted transportation revenue
Capital Expenditures, Cash Flow, Leverage & Return on Capital Forecast
($ Millions)
| |
2012 Forecast |
2011 |
| Full Service Lease |
$1,410-1,510 |
$1,067 |
| Commercial Rental |
$590 |
$622 |
| Operating Property & Equipment |
$100 |
$71 |
| Gross Capital Expenditures |
$2,100 - 2,200 |
$1,760 |
| Less: Proceeds from Sales |
$390 |
$300 |
| Less: Proceeds from Sale & Leaseback |
|
$37 |
| Net Capital Expenditures |
$1,710 - 1,810 |
$1,422 |
|
|
|
| Total Cash Generated(1) |
$1,670 - 1,710 |
$1,422 |
| Free Cash Flow(1)(2) |
$ (400)-(460) |
$ (257) |
| Total Obligations to Equity(1) |
261% - 265% |
261% |
| Adjusted Return on Capital(1) |
5.9% |
5.7% |
|
|
|
(1) Non-GAAP financial measures- please refer to financial statements and Earnings Release materials for description and reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.
(2) Free Cash Flow excludes acquisitions. Acquisitions totaled $362 million in 2011.
Note Regarding Forward Looking Statements
Safe Harbor
Certain statements and information included in this presentation are "forward-looking statements" under the Federal Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Accordingly, these forward-looking statements should be evaluated with consideration given to the many risks and uncertainties inherent in our business that could cause actual results and events to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause such differences include, among others, a slowdown of the economic recovery and decreases in freight demand, our ability to obtain adequate profit margins for our services, our inability to maintain current pricing levels due to soft economic conditions, uncertainty or decline in economic and market conditions affecting demand for our services, a decline in the market for used vehicles resulting in a decline in residual values of our lease or rental vehicles, competition from other service providers, customer retention levels, unexpected volatility or declines in automotive or high-tech volume, loss of key customers in the Supply Chain Solutions (SCS) business segment, unexpected reserves or write-offs due to the deterioration of the credit worthiness or bankruptcy of customers, changes in financial, tax or regulatory requirements or changes in customers’ business environments that will limit their ability to commit to long-term vehicle leases, a decrease in credit ratings, increased debt costs resulting from volatile financial markets, inability to achieve planned synergies and customer retention levels or anticipate costs and liabilities from acquisitions, labor strikes or work stoppages affecting our or our customers’ business operations, driver and technician shortages and increasing driver costs, adequacy of accounting estimates, reserves and accruals particularly with respect to pension, taxes, insurance and revenue, a decline in pension plan returns, changes in obligations relating to multi-employer plans, sudden or unusual changes in fuel prices, our ability to manage our cost structure, new accounting pronouncements, rules or interpretations, changes in government regulations, new proposed changes in lease accounting rules, the inability to comply with government regulations particularly relating to various state and federal privacy, employment and environmental regulations, new legal proceedings or unanticipated outcomes in existing legal proceedings and the risks described in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The risks included here are not exhaustive. New risks emerge from time to time and it is not possible for management to predict all such risk factors or to assess the impact of such risks on our business. Accordingly, we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.